The Doomsday Swami - Bill Cara

Swami Syndrome: A proclivity for predicting the future coupled with a blinding disconnect to the fact that a coin toss (or the proverbial monkey) would be more accurate than your lame prognostications.

Way back in March of 2007, Bill Cara took a look at the real estate market in the U.S., and the subprime market in particular, and came to an alarming conclusion.

In his article The why and how America is in trouble,

he buffed up his crystal ball till it was glowing red hot and pronounced:

The whole of the world watched TV images of the inhumane treatment of the poor of New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina. With great respect to those couple hundred thousand disadvantaged souls (as my readers know I have), I believe those ugly TV images may even look mild compared to the scenario that would follow angry mobs across America if market interest rates rise beyond the tipping point that would collapse the entire US mortgage market.

Yes, I believe there will be a US economic recession, but the elements are now in place for the first time in 80 years for America to sink into a depression.

Heavy stuff!!! Get your shotguns now everybody, Bill thinks the whole nation is about to get Katrina’d.

The Doomsday Swami backs up his claim with many pie charts and graphs that indicate just how badly the American banking system was mismanaged. Of special note is how he identifies the banks that are the most overexposed to Alt-A/Subprime risk, and he provides a chart to show his Swami prowess on that point. Well done. He also shows some real Swami Swagger by showing us a chart of U.S. builders while claiming he called the top in the real estate market. He backs that one up pretty well.

But he used the “D” word here. Only the bravest of Swami’s would go that far.

Is Bill Cara the Swami of the Decade? or is he just a Chicken Little Psuedo Swami with a very bad case of Swami Syndrome?

I think by June of 2008 the answer to that should be very clear. We have to see at least a really nasty recession, not just a little blippy one that reverses, for the Doomsday Swami to be proven correct.

-- Filed December 2, 2007 at 3:23 pm